If you have hunted for red tart cherry juice this fall and found a gap on the shelf, you have seen tariffs and food shortages interact in real time. A spring freeze that industry veterans call the worst disaster in tart cherry history wiped out much of the 2026 U.S. crop, and the imports that would normally fill the gap now carry a new 12.5% duty. One small bottle of juice turns out to be a clean case study in how trade policy, weather and supply chains combine to raise price